Oil Slides More Than 3% as Trump Calls New Iran Strikes Unlikely
Brent crude fell more than 3% to about $95 a barrel Monday after President Trump said renewed US attacks on Iran were "highly unlikely" while talks continue.
Oil prices fell sharply on Monday, Nov. 9, extending last week’s steep decline, after President Donald Trump said further US strikes on Iran were “highly unlikely” as long as negotiations with Tehran keep moving. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was down 3.22% at $95.15 a barrel at 7:47 a.m. ET, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main US benchmark, fell 2.57% to $88.50, International Business Times reported.
The losses deepened as the morning went on. Earlier, at 4:30 a.m. ET, Brent was down $1.65, or 1.7%, at $96.67 and WTI was 96 cents lower at $89.87, according to Reuters figures cited by Offshore Technology and The Globe and Mail.
What happened
In an interview with CNN broadcast on Sunday, Trump played down the chance of resuming attacks in a conflict with Iran that has lasted more than eight months. He tied that outlook to diplomacy over Iran’s nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that carries a large share of the world’s seaborne oil. “It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement,” Trump said, according to International Business Times.
The president kept a warning in place as well. He said the United States had three aircraft carriers in the region and was “fully locked and loaded,” the outlet reported. Trump had earlier signaled that strikes could resume after last week’s US midterm elections, but no large-scale American military operation has followed, The Globe and Mail noted.
Why it matters
The slide adds to a sharp reversal in energy markets. Brent fell about 16% last week, its biggest weekly drop since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Reuters figures cited by Offshore Technology. Lower crude prices tend to ease pressure on fuel costs and inflation, which investors are watching closely.
Analysts quoted by The Globe and Mail cautioned that the market may be getting ahead of events. Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of New Delhi-based research firm SS WealthStreet, said prices were reflecting a hopeful de-escalation scenario even though Washington and Tehran have not reached a comprehensive deal. Without a real diplomatic breakthrough and steady shipping through Hormuz, she said, Brent could find support near $93 a barrel. Tim Waterer, chief analyst at brokerage KCM Trade, called Trump’s remarks “more measured” and said traders want to know whether the midterms produced a lasting change in the president’s approach or only a shift in tone.
Supply forecasts have also turned softer. In a Friday report, JPMorgan estimated a global oil surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million barrels per day in October, citing recovering Middle Eastern flows, higher output elsewhere and weak demand, The Globe and Mail reported.
Risks still in play
Supply threats have not gone away. Several incidents over the weekend kept traders on edge:
- The United States and Iran both reported attacks on shipping in or near the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic remains disrupted.
- Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement said it attacked offices of Saudi Aramco, the Saudi state oil company, in Riyadh on Sunday.
- A drone hit a liquefied petroleum gas storage tank at Iraq’s Khor Mor gas field on Sunday, halting production; no group has claimed the attack, Offshore Technology reported.
- Russia’s Kirishi refinery caught fire after a Ukrainian drone attack on Monday, according to Alexander Drozdenko, governor of the Leningrad region.
Iranian officials have warned of retaliation against US and Israeli targets if fighting escalates. Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, urged Washington in a Sunday post on X to accept Tehran’s offer, threatening escalation otherwise, according to International Business Times.
What comes next
Attention now turns to diplomacy. Trump was scheduled to meet Monday with Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatar’s prime minister. Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom reported that he would present an Iran-approved proposal under which the US naval and economic blockade would be lifted in exchange for reopening the strait, with about $8 billion in Iranian funds held in Qatar unfrozen, International Business Times said. That report has not been independently confirmed.
Domestic politics may also shape the outlook. Democrats, who won big in last week’s midterms, have pledged to end the war. Hakeem Jeffries, the House Democratic leader, called it a “reckless and costly war of choice,” while Vice President JD Vance said Republicans need an “honest conversation” about the conflict, the outlet reported.
