South Africa’s ANC Heads for Worst-Ever Result in Local Elections
Near-final results put the ANC at about 31% in South Africa's municipal elections, its lowest share since apartheid ended, as the DA and MK gain ground.
South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC), the party that has governed the country since the end of apartheid in 1994, is heading for the worst election result in its history. Near-final results from the municipal elections held on Wednesday, Nov. 4, put it at roughly 31% of the national vote. The party is still the largest, but its decline leaves control of many of the country’s biggest cities up to coalition talks.
What the results show
With about 90% of votes declared, the ANC had just over 31%, Agence France-Presse reported. The Democratic Alliance (DA), the pro-business party that is South Africa’s main opposition at the local level, was second with just over 24%, up from nearly 22% in 2021. Third place went to uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), a breakaway party led by former President Jacob Zuma, with just over 9%. It was MK’s first local election.
The Daily Sun, a South African tabloid, put the ANC’s provisional share at 31.06%, citing figures from the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC), the national election body. That compares with 45.60% in the 2021 municipal elections, which had been the party’s previous worst local result. The final count could still shift slightly. The IEC is expected to announce official results by Sunday.
The ANC’s support has been falling for years. Figures reported by the Daily Sun show how steep the drop has been across national and local elections:
According to the Daily Sun, the party lost control of Johannesburg and Tshwane, the municipality that includes the capital, Pretoria, in 2016. In the 2024 national election it fell to 40.18% and lost the parliamentary majority it had held for 30 years. That forced it into a coalition known as the Government of National Unity, which includes the DA.
Why voters turned away
Reuters and AFP both said the campaign was dominated by anger over failing local services, especially water and electricity supplies. Reuters also cited high crime and corruption scandals, and AFP pointed to mismanagement and high unemployment. The Daily Sun listed dry taps, uncollected rubbish and potholes among voters’ frustrations.
Analysts said low turnout did not explain the result. Louw Nel, a senior political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, told Reuters that “ANC voters did not stay away” and had instead backed other parties. He called a result near 32% “the party’s worst nightmare coming true.” Reuters reported that the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, a state research agency that models election results, had projected turnout of about 52%, higher than in 2021.
Splinter parties have also taken votes from the ANC. Sanet Solomon, a university lecturer and analyst, told AFP that the rise of parties such as MK was a key reason for the losses. Daniel Silke, a political analyst, told the agency that it was “the most severe result that the ANC would have feared,” and added that opposition parties would be “smelling blood” ahead of the 2029 general election.
ANC officials played down the damage. Gwede Mantashe, the party’s national chairperson, told Reuters early in the count that the trends were not final, saying, “We may improve.” Nomvula Mokonyane, a senior ANC figure, told AFP the result gave the party “an opportunity to repackage and renew the ANC.”
The battle for the cities
The results vary widely from one major city to the next:
- Cape Town: The DA, which has governed the city for years, was set to keep control and declared early victory.
- Johannesburg: The DA was ahead in the country’s economic hub, where its campaign was led by former party leader Helen Zille. ActionSA, a party founded by former Johannesburg Mayor Herman Mashaba, did well enough that analysts told Reuters it could end up as a kingmaker.
- eThekwini (Durban): MK was leading, according to AFP. Reuters reported that MK and the Inkatha Freedom Party, a long-established party based in KwaZulu-Natal province, were ahead of the ANC in parts of that province.
What comes next
Few big municipalities are expected to produce an outright majority, which means coalition deals will decide who runs them. Reuters reported that parties have two weeks after results are declared to form governing coalitions. Geordin Hill-Lewis, the DA’s leader, told AFP the party wanted to build governments that can “actually fix these towns and cities,” and said it had already contacted many other parties.
The ANC and DA already share power nationally, and analysts told Reuters a partnership between them would be the most stable option in Johannesburg. But the two parties disagree on major policies, including racial redress measures meant to correct apartheid-era inequality. Analysts said the outcome is an early signal for the 2029 national vote. The DA hopes to become the largest party in that election, while the ANC must now show it can stop its slide.
