Strong El Niño Points to a Warmer, Wetter US Winter, Forecasters Say
NOAA expects a strong, possibly historic El Niño to bring a warmer winter to much of the US and heavier rain across the South and East Coast.
A strong and possibly record-setting El Niño is expected to shape the coming winter across the United States, with federal forecasters favoring warmer-than-average temperatures over much of the country and above-average rain and snow across the South, the Southwest and the East Coast. Officials warn that the same pattern raises the risk of flash floods, mudslides and coastal flooding, even as it may ease drought in some regions.
What the forecast says
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the federal agency responsible for weather and climate forecasting, released its official winter outlook in mid-October. The outlook covers December through February, the period meteorologists treat as winter.
According to NOAA’s outlook, as summarized by LiveNOW from FOX, the best odds of a warmer-than-average winter cover the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley, much of the East and Alaska. Florida and parts of the Southeast lean toward near-normal temperatures.
For precipitation, the outlook favors wetter conditions across the Southwest, the South and the East Coast, while parts of the northern Rockies and the Great Lakes, along with Hawaii and much of Alaska, are more likely to be drier than usual. Drought could improve or end in parts of the Southwest, the southern Plains, the Southeast and the East Coast, but could worsen in parts of the northern Rockies.
Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, warned in a statement that heavy rain falling on dry ground “can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides,” and urged communities to plan ahead. At an October media briefing, NPR reported, he described the event as “a strong, if not historic El Niño.”
Why this El Niño matters
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that begins when a large stretch of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean warms, releasing heat that shifts weather patterns around the world. NOAA expects this one to push the jet stream, the fast-moving band of high-altitude winds that steers storms, south and east over the continental U.S., tilting the odds toward a stormier South.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the agency’s seasonal forecasting arm, gives a strong-to-very strong El Niño a greater than 83% chance of persisting through January to March 2027, according to a summary posted by the National Weather Service office in La Crosse, Wisconsin. The same summary put the key ocean temperature reading for the central Pacific at 2.1 degrees Celsius above normal and noted that the chance of a historic-strength event peaks in the October-to-December period.
This would be the first El Niño since the moderate event of 2023-24. The last very strong one, in 2015-16, brought catastrophic flooding to South Carolina and a major East Coast blizzard, NPR noted. Josh Willis, a climate scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, told NPR the pattern is already fueling severe drought and wildfires in Indonesia and Southeast Asia. NPR also reported that human-caused warming adds to El Niño’s effects.
What it could mean by region
Forecasters stress that El Niño shifts the odds rather than guaranteeing any outcome. Based on NPR’s reporting and NOAA’s outlook, the main regional signals include:
- West Coast: Above-average precipitation statewide in California, especially in the south. NPR reported that bands of warm ocean water known as Kelvin waves are raising sea levels and coastal flood risk.
- Pacific Northwest: Warmer temperatures and a likely smaller snowpack, though Jon Gottschalck, a branch chief at NOAA, told NPR drought in western Oregon and Washington could improve.
- Southwest: Wet conditions have already arrived, with late-October flooding in the Four Corners region. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, cautioned that the rain will not fix the Colorado River water crisis, with Lake Powell and Lake Mead at record lows.
- South: The highest odds of above-normal precipitation, particularly in northern Florida, southern Georgia and South Carolina, along with a typically higher tornado risk.
- Northeast and Midwest: Milder conditions are favored, but nor’easters can be stronger in El Niño years. Gottschalck told NPR that drought is expected to persist across the Midwest.
What comes next
A warmer winter does not rule out major snowstorms. Graham told reporters that a milder season in the northern U.S. “doesn’t erase the risk” of snow, and the National Weather Service in La Crosse noted that seasonal outlooks cannot predict the timing or intensity of individual storms. In that office’s area, covering parts of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin, seven of nine past strong and very strong El Niño seasons brought below-normal snowfall.
The Climate Prediction Center’s next monthly El Niño update is scheduled for Nov. 12, when forecasters will reassess how strong the event is likely to become.
